Hydrogen and Methanol in 2025: Sorting Signal from Noise

If you only skim the headlines, it can feel like hydrogen is collapsing one day and conquering the world the next. In reality, 2025 is a reset year. Big, speculative bets are being trimmed, while more practical hydrogen and methanol solutions are quietly moving ahead.

From our group company’s, Hydrogen Era Global, perspective, this is not bad news. It is the market finally rewarding projects with real customers, real economics, and real molecules.

Hydrogen. From Hype Cycle To Reality Check.
Global hydrogen demand is still growing. The IEA estimates it reached almost 100 million tonnes in 2024, and is on track to pass that milestone in 2025. Most of that is still driven by traditional uses in refining, ammonia and methanol, while new applications like mobility and power remain below 1 percent of total demand.

At the same time, some high profile projects are being pulled back.

The Financial Times reports that nearly 60 major low carbon hydrogen projects, including ones from BP and ExxonMobil, have been cancelled or paused, representing about 4.9 million tonnes a year of potential capacity.

Barron’s notes that Exxon has paused its flagship Baytown hydrogen project and cut its low carbon spending target from 30 billion to 20 billion US dollars, citing slow customer uptake and uncertain policy support.

Taken together, this tells a simple story.

• Hydrogen’s long term role is intact.
  
  
• The market is punishing projects that were heavy on capex and light on real offtake.
  
  
• Investors are asking tougher questions about who will actually buy the hydrogen, at what price, and under which regulations.
  
  

For HEG, that simply reinforces a discipline we already believe in. Focus on projects where hydrogen has a clear technical and commercial advantage, not just a good story.

Methanol’s Momentum. Especially In Shipping.
While some large hydrogen projects slow down, methanol is moving into the spotlight as a practical, hydrogen based fuel that can be used now.

Shipping is leading the way.

• In May 2024, Singapore carried out a ship to ship bunkering of around 1,340 tonnes of blended methanol for an IMO II tanker. This followed the world’s first ship to containership methanol bunkering in the port in 2023.
  
  
• In 2025, Korea’s Ulsan Port completed its first green methanol ship to ship bunkering for a dual fuel bulk carrier, expanding from earlier trials with container ships.
  
  
• Chinese ports such as Dalian, Tianjin and Ningbo are building out green methanol supply chains, from inland production to export cargoes and bunkering, positioning themselves as regional green fuel hubs.
  
  

On the demand side, shipping faces tightening regulation. the EU’s FuelEU Maritime regulation starts to limit the greenhouse gas intensity of marine fuels from 2025 onwards, with steadily stricter targets towards 2050. That is pushing owners towards fuels they can actually source and handle at scale, today. Methanol fits that brief far better than many alternatives in the near term.

The pattern is clear.

• Methanol can leverage existing liquid fuel infrastructure.
  
  
• Dual fuel engines are commercially available and already being ordered at scale.
  
  
• Green methanol projects are starting to appear along real trade routes, not just in presentations.
  
  

For HEG, this is exactly the kind of “usable transition” we want to build around. Systems that can start with conventional or blended methanol, then progressively adopt greener molecules as supply expands.

What This Means For A “Methanol Today, Hydrogen Tomorrow” Strategy

Put the pieces together and a pragmatic path emerges.

1. Hydrogen remains the end state for deep decarbonisation
   Heavy industry, long haul transport, and certain power applications will need hydrogen or hydrogen based fuels to reach net zero. The IEA’s numbers, and the continued growth of committed low emissions projects, point in that direction even if timelines slip.
   
   
2. Methanol is the near term workhorse
   Shipping, off grid and industrial power users are under pressure to cut emissions now, not in 10 years. Methanol allows them to act today while staying compatible with a hydrogen based future. That is why ports like Singapore and Ulsan are investing in methanol bunkering infrastructure ahead of many other alternative fuels.
   
   
3. Investors are shifting from “big and shiny” to “real and bankable”
   The pullback highlighted by the Financial Times and Barron’s is not the end of clean hydrogen. It is a move towards projects with clearer offtake, better risk allocation and technology that customers are ready to adopt.
   
   

At Hydrogen Era Global, this reinforces our core thesis.

• Design solutions that work with methanol today.
  
  
• Ensure they are ready for lower carbon methanol and, over time, hydrogen based inputs.
  
  
• Anchor every project in real customer needs and credible economics, not just incentives.
  
  

The transition is not linear and it is certainly not smooth, but it is moving. When you strip away the noise, hydrogen and methanol are not competing headlines. They are complementary tools in a more mature, more disciplined decarbonisation story.

Sources

• Financial Times – “Hydrogen dreams meet reality as oil and gas groups abandon projects”

• Barron’s – “Exxon Puts Clean Hydrogen Investing on Pause. The Industry Is Reeling”

• IEA – Global Hydrogen Review 2024 and 2025

• MPA Singapore, “Singapore carries out ship to ship bunkering of close to 1,340 metric tonnes of blended methanol”

• Ulsan Port Authority and maritime trade press coverage on Korea’s first green methanol bunkering

• China Briefing, “China’s Green Bunkering Market. Navigating Early Opportunities”